Short answer: a renewal is judged on a comparison you did not have to make at the original sanction — what you projected last year against what actually happened. The new projection matters, but it is read in the light of the old one.
Why renewal is the harder exercise
At a fresh sanction the bank has no history with you. Your projections are a proposal, assessed for plausibility.
At renewal the bank has last year's CMA on file. Every figure you projected is now checkable against the audited outcome, and the credibility of this year's projection depends on how last year's turned out. That is the whole difference, and it changes what the pack has to do: it is now an explanation as much as a forecast.
The comparison the branch actually runs
The sequence below is the standard one; presentation varies between lenders, and your own sanction letter is the authority for what yours will ask.
- Projected turnover against achieved turnover. The headline comparison.
- Projected margins against achieved margins. A turnover hit with a margin miss is a different conversation from either alone.
- The working capital cycle. Debtor days, inventory days, creditor days — projected against actual. This is where an unexplained deterioration shows.
- Utilisation of the existing limit. Consistently low utilisation invites a reduced assessment; consistently at the ceiling invites questions about whether the limit was right or the cycle has stretched.
- Consistency with the stock statements filed through the year. The CMA cannot say something the monthly statements have been contradicting for twelve months.